Here we go again
This column is due two months to the day before the first stage of the Amgen Tour of California, making this the perfect opportunity for my first-ever attempt at actual analysis of some actual bike racing. So without further ado, here’s my Unofficial Tour of California Race Preview and Travel Guide.
Prologue: San Francisco
The inaugural USA Cycling National Pro Racing Tour Calendar as well as Chinese Lunar Year 4705 – the year of the pig – get started today in The City with the 1.9-mile prologue from the Ferry Building to Coit Tower. Levi Leipheimer won pretty convincingly last year and he should be pretty motivated to repeat, since he’ll be making his debut for Discovery Channel. Wow, this race previewing is easy! The dark horse for this stage will be anyone from Predictor-Lotto; as the Pink Team, they’ll have home-field advantage in this town. But seriously, folks.
Travel tips: Welcome to my city! If the weather is nice like it was last year, head down to Zeitgeist on Valencia and Duboce in the Mission. No need to lock your bike outside; there’s a huge bike rack on the back patio. If it’s crowded, order your burger before you get in line for the bar. Don’t bother looking for food or street parking near the course. I’ll have my Treo with me, so send a text message if you need directions.
Stage 1: Sausalito to Santa Rosa
This year’s first road stage is a longer and harder version of last year’s stage, which saw J.J. Haedo win the field sprint after the early breakaway was caught on the run-in to Santa Rosa. This time around, look for J.J. Haedo to win the field sprint after the early breakaway gets caught on the run-in to Santa Rosa.
I’m actually going to predict that J.J. will win either four or five stages, depending on whether he can climb well enough on stage 6 – which he did last year before giving up on the sprint. He was clearly the fastest sprinter in last year’s race but Toyota-United couldn’t consistently lead him out. This year, he’ll be on the strongest team, CSC, and will be pretty much impossible to beat.
Travel tips: If you want to get a good view of the finish, get to Santa Rosa early or disguise yourself as a caterer and sneak into the VIP tent. After the stage, Snoopy fans should be sure to visit the Charles M. Schulz Museum.
Stage 2: Santa Rosa to Sacramento
The first half of this stage should be pretty tough, with lots of climbs and some surprisingly big rollers that won’t show up on the course profile. But to say that the second half is “pancake-flat” would be a disservice to pancakes. One time, I did a time trial around here on an 8-mile rectangular course that was so flat that you literally could have seen the third corner from the first corner if there hadn’t been a small shed exactly in the line of sight.
If the weather cooperates, expect another early-break-gets-caught-before-JJ-wins-the-field-sprint stage. But it gets really windy out there in bad weather, which could lead to an interesting mix of motivated domestic riders in the biggest race of their season and stronger ProTour guys who aren’t so stoked about riding hard in February.
Travel tips: After this little bike race is finished, I’ll be at ARCO Arena to watch some Real Sports, as the Sacramento Kings take on my Boston Celtics, who were leading the Atlantic Division with a record of 10-13 when this issue went to press. Email me if you want to come with.
Stage 3: Stockton to San Jose
Stockton replaces Martinez as the Tour of California’s least attractive host city! Unless the weather goes bad, I can’t see how this stage will play out any differently than it did last year, when the Sierra Road climb blew out most of the field and even opened gaps among the GC contenders, but was far enough from the finish that a group of about 20 came back together. Hincapie will probably win again.
Travel tips: Near the top of the Patterson Pass climb in the first half of the stage, the course passes within a couple miles of Altamont Speedway, the site of the Rolling Stones’ ill-fated 1969 concert.
Stage 4: Seaside to San Luis Obispo
Bring a magazine for this one; it’s going to be a long day. There were a bunch of breakaways last year, and one of them looked like it actually might stick until Chris Horner bridged across. It was a savvy move, but it pissed everyone off and then J.J. Haedo won the field sprint.
Travel tips: If you’re staying in SLO and enjoy creepy hotels, check out the Madonna Inn, where every room has its own theme and unique decor. I know for a fact that ROAD editors Neil@ROAD and Tim have already booked the Caveman Room.
Stage 5: Solvang TT
With Floyd out of the picture and a relatively short course, this could up for grabs. Or Zabriskie could win going away. Or Chris Baldwin could make up for his crash in last year’s national championships by keeping the rubber side down and surprising the ProTour cats. That sounds good; let’s go with that.
Travel tips: Solvang has this whole Denmark thing going on, with copper roofs, windmills and various Scandinavian treats. Don’t miss the Museum of Depictions of the Prophet Mohammed! Way to go, Denmark.
Travel tips: Last year’s race didn’t visit Solvang (aka “Denmarkland”) but it came within a few miles on the way to the stage finish in Santa Barbara, where race promoter AEG put up Kodakgallery.com/Sierra Nevada, CSC and Navigators at the Four Seasons Biltmore Resort. There were riders whose monthly salaries were less than the rate listed on the door to their rooms.
Stage 6: Santa Barbara to Santa Clarita
This stage will be hard the whole way, and I’m hoping against hope that we will actually see a breakaway stick if the “demanding” finishing circuits in Santa Clarita live up to their billing. But don’t expect to see any changes atop the GC, which will once again be decided by the time trial despite pre-race hype to the contrary. I guess this means that I’m predicting that Chris Baldwin will win the overall.
Travel tips: The ROAD Magazine post-race party will be off the hizzle or whatever, but the real attraction here is the northernmost point of Los Angeles Urban Sprawl at the corner of Valley Oak Place and Black Pine Way in Santa Clarita. If you think I’m making this up… www.elfurl.com/zyobb
Stage 7: Long Beach circuit race
During the current era of major UCI stage races in this country, which includes four Tours de Georgia and last year’s Tour of California, there have been just two successful breakaways out of 27 road stages. Currently, the streak stands at 18 breakaway-less days of racing since Jason McCartney rode into Dahlonega in the 2004 Tour de Georgia. So historical evidence suggests that every road stage of the 2007 Tour of California will end in a bunch sprint like the one that J.J. will win in Long Beach.
Travel Tips: Neil@ROAD says that the best place to buy that sticky-icky in the LBC is the corner of Cherry and Broadway, which happens to be just three blocks from the course. I want you all to know that I do not condone this type of behavior.